MVGMMA Index Reallocates to 100% T-Bills Exposure in March

The MarketVector^TM-GammaRoad U.S. Equity Strategy Index (MVGMMA) employs a rules-based, adaptive process to allocate between U.S. equity exposure and Treasury Bills exposure based upon its fundamental, behavioral, and trend-based measures for U.S. equity market risk. 

The strategy benefited from entering March with roughly 33% equity exposure and 67% T-Bill exposure. During the month:

• the strategy's measure for consumer confidence remained bearish (since late January),
• its measure for economically sensitive asset relationships entered the month bearish, briefly turned bullish, then turned bearish again, and
• Its measure for price direction turned bearish. 

As a result, all three measures of market risk became unanimously bearish by mid-March, and the strategy reallocated to 100% T-Bills exposure. 

Chart: Performance of MVGMMA and Weight in U.S. Equity (SPY)

Source: MarketVector. Data as of April 11, 2025.

Since the January 29, 1993 base date of the MVGMMA Index, there are four periods where all three measures are bearish and the strategy holds 100% T-Bills exposure:

• Dot-Com Bubble
• Global Financial Crisis
• Global Pandemic
• Rising Inflation and Interest Rates in 2022

To dive deeper into the research behind the strategy’s current positioning and the potential implications for market volatility, please access our full strategy update here. 

 

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About the Author:

Jordan is the architect of the MarketVector™-GammaRoad U.S. Equity Strategy Index and co-founder of GammaRoad Capital Partners, LLC. Prior to launching GammaRoad, Jordan was the Chief Investment Officer for Legacy Heritage Partners LLC, where he managed the institutional private foundation and family office portfolios. Before joining Legacy Heritage Partners LLC, Jordan was the Senior Investment Strategist for IBM Retirement Funds, where he was responsible for asset allocation and investment risk management for the U.S. pension fund. While working at IBM, Jordan was featured in CIO Magazine’s 2015 Global 40 Under 40 issue. Prior to joining IBM, Jordan was a Principal in Mercer Investments’ New York office with a focus on asset allocation, strategy implementation, and manager selection for endowments and foundations, corporate pension funds, defined contribution plans, and insurance captives. Jordan is a CFA Charterholder and holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from Emory University.

 

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