How Did Gold and Gold Miners Perform in 2025?Gold has been one of 2025’s defining stories. Spot gold prices climbed above $4,000/oz, gaining more than 50% year-to-date in November, while the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (MVGDX) has surged 180% YTD, with junior miners close behind. More than just another cyclical rally, it reflects a “structural re-rating” of gold and gold equities.
Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are buying record amounts of gold as they diversify away from the U.S. dollar, while Western investors are re-entering after years of under-allocation. The result is a broad-based, multi-source demand revival that’s lifting the entire sector across all caps.
Why Are Gold Miners Outperforming Bullion?
When spot gold grabs headlines, miners provide a leveraged tilt. With all-in sustaining costs near $1,600/oz, producers are generating record profit margins at today’s prices. Both large-caps and juniors are showing financial discipline, strengthening balance sheets rather than repeating the reckless M&A sprees of the last gold rush. At the same time, supply growth remains constrained. Discovery and developing new deposits is slow, expensive, and geologically tougher than ever, limiting how quickly production can respond. That scarcity supports not just prices, but equity valuations going forward.
What’s the Outlook for 2026?
Even after a historic year, gold equities remain fundamentally undervalued relative to the metal itself. Analysts expect both senior and junior miners to post further gains in 2026:
- Profit margins stay robust with gold well above breakeven.
- Capital discipline persists across the sector.
- Global investors rotate toward real assets and low-correlation exposures amid macro uncertainty
Chart: Gold Miner’s Performance (2009 to 2025 YTD)
Source: MarketVector as of Nov 17, 2025. Cumulative performance, rebsed to 1,000. MarketVector Gold Miners Index (MVGDX), MarketVector Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJ); State Street, GLD ETF.
Gold miners’ fundamentals remain strong with juniors in particular poised to benefit from renewed exploration spending, historical discount and M&A momentum.
Are Juniors Poised for a Breakout?
2025 may have been the year gold miners roared back, but the next leg could be just beginning. Structural demand, disciplined operators, and constrained supply are reshaping the landscape for both majors and juniors.
For a deeper dive:Explore our insight papers to understand the metrics, methodology, and investment case driving this new era for gold-linked equities:
> Introducing the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index
> Reintroducing MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index
For more information on MarketVector Indexes, visit www.marketvector.com
About the Author:
Joy Yang is the Global Head of Index Product Management at MarketVectorTM Indexes. She is responsible for managing MarketVector index products and services to accelerate innovation in financial index design and adoption. Joy brings more than 25 years of investment experience to MarketVector, having led teams delivering index and quantitative-active investment solutions at Arabesque Asset Management, Dimensional Fund Advisors, Vanguard, Aberdeen Standard Investments, AXA Rosenberg, and Blackrock. Joy has an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a BS in Electrical Engineering from Cooper Union’s Albert Nerken School of Engineering.
For informational and advertising purposes only. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors but not necessarily those of MarketVector Indexes GmbH. Opinions are current as of the publication date and are subject to change with market conditions. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements, that do not reflect actual results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Exposure to an asset class represented by an index is available through investable instruments based on that index. MarketVector Indexes GmbH does not sponsor, endorse, sell, promote, or manage any investment fund or other investment vehicle that is offered by third parties and that seeks to provide an investment return based on the performance of any index. The inclusion of a security within an index is not a recommendation by MarketVector Indexes GmbH to buy, sell, or hold such security, nor is it considered to be investment advice.
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